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Could Society End In 991 Years?

Eh, it’s possible.

Ted Bauer
3 min readAug 26, 2024

I fully understand most people cannot process 991 seconds from now, so 991 years — when everyone you know will be dead, unless we do something crazy with telomeres or AI keeps us all alive as servants — is hard to process. But, according to seemingly autistic gay billionaire Peter Thiel, who handed the world J.D. Vance and we absolutely love him for it, society might be over in 991 years:

To keep this math simple, let’s do this:

  • Currently there are about 8 billion people on the planet.
  • The global “replacement rate” is not exactly known (Sub-Saharan Africa still averages about 5–6 kids per woman), but let’s say it’s under 2, as most industrialized nations are 1.5 to 1.8 and South Korea is 0.7.
  • Essentially, then, women are having 1 child per.
  • At that rate, 8 billion would become 4 billion across 1–2 generations.
  • Now, per Thiel, we’d logically want to assume that this all ebbs and flows, and future generations will maybe want more kids and get the…

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Ted Bauer
Ted Bauer

Written by Ted Bauer

I write about a lot of different topics, from work to masculinity to relationships and social dynamics, I.e. modern friendship. Pleasure to be here.

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